Sep. 10th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 20 newly reported confirmed deaths (16 more than yesterday - up 400.0%) for a total of 8,957 deaths, 363 newly reported confirmed cases (181 more than yesterday - up 99.5%) for a total of 121,759 cases, and 17,889 new patients tested by molecular tests (6,539 more than yesterday - up 57.6%) for a total of 1,906,212 individuals tested, with a total of 2,852,550 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.0%, compared to 1.6% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 209 deaths, and 40 newly reported probable cases (40 more than yesterday) for a total of 1,787 cases. The state also reported 259 patients tested by antibody tests (3 less than yesterday - down 1.1%) for a total of 115,578 patients, and 2,463 patients tested by antigen tests (2,064 more than yesterday - up 517.3%) for a total of 97,848 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 20 new deaths for a total of 9,166 and 403 new cases for a total of 123,546.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 277.1 compared to 338.4 last week (down 18.1%) and 356.7 two weeks ago (down 22.3%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 12.4 compared to 13.6 last week (down 8.4%) and 19.7 two weeks ago (down 36.8%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 14,946.7 compared to 21,678.4 last week (down 31.1%) and 23,455.3 two weeks ago (down 36.3%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 1.9% compared to 1.6% last week and 1.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.8%, 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 9. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 340, 13% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 2, 2 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8, 0% above the lowest observed value of 8 on September 7.

Big jumps in day-to-day tests (good), cases (bad) and deaths (also bad); much more worrisome is the jump in percent-positive ratio. The seven-day averages for cases and deaths are still trending in a good direction, but again that percentage of individuals coming back testing positive is trending badly. The state's "key metrics" for deaths and positive test rate are both at their lowest observed value, which is great; but the average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is climbing, and that does not bode well for the future death counts.

Meanwhile, Governor Baker is going to allow both indoor and outdoor arcades to open next week, but not bars or nightclubs:
cut to preserve your reading page )
Boston hasn't had any COVID-19 deaths for nine days? That's a nice bit of good news, that I hadn't seen reported elsewhere.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8AM on September 9, the town of Acton reported 200 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 3 individuals in isolation, 176 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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