Not a local COVID-19 update - yet

The following note is posted on the Commonwealth of Massachusetts' COVID-19 Response Reporting page, where the link to the daily dashboard is normally posted every day around 4PM:

Significant IT issues are impacting the production of today’s data report. It will be posted as soon as it is available.

Never a good sign, particularly as today is also Wednesday, when the COVID-19 Weekly Public Health Report (with town-level case and test counts) is normally released.

Local COVID-19 updates

As of 4PM [1] today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 2 newly reported confirmed deaths (for a total of 8,438), 338 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 111,371), and 17,216 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 1,251,322), with a total of 1,636,875 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.0%. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (for a total of 221), 102 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 8,272), and 872 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 99,170). Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 2 new deaths (for a total of 8,659) and 440 new cases (for a total of 119,643).

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 325.0 compared to 240.4 last week and 183.6 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 11.1 compared to 15.9 last week and 13.9 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 14,584.6 compared to 12,296.4 last week and 11,523.0 two weeks ago. The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 2.2% compared to 2.0% last week and 1.6% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

For once, the day-to-day numbers are unreservedly good. Cases down, deaths down, tests up, and percent-positive ratio way down. The seven-day trends for deaths and tests are also good, but the trends for cases and percent-positive are still going in the wrong direction.

Today being Wednesday, the state also released its Weekly COVID-19 Public Health Report - and they changed the format again. Now, instead of listing the number of persons tested, they list the number of tests performed. (No explanation that I can see as to why that change was made.) My town of Acton is listed as having 174 confirmed cases (less than 5 in the last 14 days), and 4,182 total tests (667 in the last 14 days, with 4 positive tests), for a "percent positivity" of 0.60% over the past 14 days. The corresponding statewide numbers are 111,371 cases (2,788 in the last 14 days), 1,636,875 total tests (224,483 in the last 14 days, with 4.079 positive), and 1.82% positive tests over the past 14 days.

The Boston Globe posted a handy explanation of "what you need to know about positive test rates":

The number shown on the dashboard is a daily recalculation of the percentage of tests that were found positive in testing for the past week. The total number of positive tests for seven days is divided by the total number of tests administered.

It’s essentially the state’s testing "batting average" for the most recent seven days.

As of Tuesday, it indicated that 2.2 out of every 100 people the state tested for the coronavirus over the past seven days were found to be infected.

It is based on tests as of the date they were given, not the date the results were reported. The dashboard displays 30 days of the critical metric. The percentages reported on the chart can change from day to day, as more test results are received and assigned back to the days the tests were administered.

The number that the state is tracking (where they update the percentages based on the date the test was given) isn't the same as the simplified number I've been calculating. All I do is take the number of new cases and divide it by the new number of persons tested. Not nearly as precise, I suppose, but simple enough to see trends.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 3PM on July 28,the town reported 183 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Acton with 4 individuals in isolation, 158 recovered and 21 fatalities.

[1] This wasn't actually available at 4; in fact, I didn't see it until 7:30.