Jul. 29th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today[1], the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 29 newly reported confirmed deaths (for a total of 8,360), 356 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 109,096), and 15,556 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 1,149,230), with a total of 1,489,896 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.3%. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (for a total of 220), 146 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 7,588), and 1,224 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 94,348). Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 29 new deaths (for a total of 8,580) and 502 new cases (for a total of 116,684). The front page of today's daily dashboard includes the following note:
PLEASE NOTE:A technical reporting error by a hospital group caused a delay in its laboratory test results being reported to DPH. These newly reported test results have been included in today’s dashboard report and are reflected in today’s case totals. However, these positive test results have been assigned retrospectively to the appropriate date of test.
Ouch. Everything is going in the wrong direction today (except more tests are always good). In particular, the jumps in confirmed deaths and percent-positive results are very worrying. Plus, two of the four key metrics on page 2 of the report (seven-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate and three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital) both are up compared to yesterday, while the number of hospitals using surge capacity ticked down to two.

The seven-day averages over the last few weeks (calculated from the data at https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-raw-data-july-29-2020/download) don't look any better. The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 240.4 compared to 183.6 last week and 166.7 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 15.9 compared to 13.9 last week and 17.7 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 12,296.4 compared to 11,523.0 last week and 10,305.7 two weeks ago. The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 2.0% compared to 1.6% last week and 1.7% two weeks ago. Again, the only number going in a "good" direction is the number of tests.

Today being Wednesday, the state also released its Weekly COVID-19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 172 confirmed cases (less than 5 in the last 14 days), and 3,761 persons tested (551 in the last 14 days, with 5 positive tests), for a "percent positivity" of 0.91% over the past 14 days. The corresponding statewide numbers are 109,096 cases (2,514 in the last 14 days), 1,489,896 persons tested (187,587 in the last 14 days, with 3,265 positive), and 1.74% positive tests over the past 14 days.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 3PM on July 28,the town reported 183 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Acton with 4 individuals in isolation, 158 recovered and 21 fatalities.

[1] The data was not actually available until around 6:30PM; there was a note on the state's COVID-19 Response Reporting page that the data would be posted once available.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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