The "most agressive Atlantic hurricane outlook to date"

[edschweppe]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration has put out their official 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast - and, as the Boston Globe reports, it's an "extraordinary" one:

Federal weather forecasters on Thursday put forth their most aggressive Atlantic hurricane outlook to date, predicting an "extraordinary" eight to 13 hurricanes this season, which begins June 1.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 17 to 25 named tropical storms will form in the Atlantic Ocean through Nov. 30 — the highest number of storms that NOAA has ever forecast in its 154-year history. Of those storms, NOAA forecasts eight to 13 hurricanes, four to seven of which will strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 or larger).

[ ... ]

The average number of named storms in a typical season is 14, with usually two landfalling storms. Last season was above average with 2023 seeing 20 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — roughly in line with what NOAA predicted last year: 12-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes.

This season, NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said, confidence is high. There's an 85% chance that up to 25 storms will develop.

[ ... ]

"This year has higher ranges than we had forecast in 2005, with the sea surface temperatures in the main development region (of the Atlantic) being 2 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, the equivalent of what we would see in August and dramatically warmer than 2005 and even 2010," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA.

Spinrad said NOAA's official Climate Prediction Center forecast "indicates a 77% chance of La Niña (presence) in the August/September/October timeframe (peak hurricane season), leading to weaker trade winds and less vertical wind shear, conducive for storm development."

"Higher ranges ... than 2005" - you know, the year they ran out of names for named storms and had to hit the Greek alphabet?

Yay.

The actual NOAA press release is worth reading (and not paywalled!)