edschweppe | Local COVID-19 updates

As of 5PM today (Thursday, June 29, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 more than last week - up 100.0%) for a total of 22,677 confirmed deaths. There were 0 newly reported probable deaths (2 less than last week) for a total of 2,038 probable deaths. In total, 10 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (3 more than last week - up 42.9%) for a total of 24,715 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 642 newly reported confirmed cases (51 less than last week - down 7.4%) for a total of 2,043,979 confirmed cases. There were 375 newly reported probable cases (78 more than last week - up 26.3%) for a total of 205,513 probable cases. In total, 1,017 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (27 more than last week - up 2.7%) for a total of 2,249,492 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 18,020 new molecular tests (1,013 less than last week - down 5.3%) for a total of 50,227,992. The seven-day average positivity rate is 3.99%, compared to 4.06% last week. There are currently 142 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (18 less than last week - down 11.3%), 11 COVID patients are in ICUs (1 less than last week - down 8.3%), and 3 COVID patients are intubated (2 less than last week - down 40.0%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 75.0 (6.9 less than last week - down 8.4%), 16.9% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.7% below the highest observed value of 23,246.6 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.99% (0.07 less than last week - down 1.7%), 1,195.5% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 85.6% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 151.6 (12.0 less than last week - down 7.3%), 79.8% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 96.1% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 0.7 (0.3 more than last week - up 66.7%), 25.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.6 on 6/19/2023 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,167.6 (142.6 less than last week - down 6.2%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 2,167.6 on 6/27/2023 and 98.0% below the highest observed value of 110,431.6 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,609 non-ICU beds, of which 7,776 (90.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 131 (1.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 702 (8.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,176 ICU beds, of which 932 (79.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 11 (0.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 233 (19.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,578 non-ICU beds, of which 7,773 (90.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 148 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 657 (7.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,202 ICU beds, of which 935 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 12 (1.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 255 (21.2%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (June 29), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,167.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 75.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.7, the 7 day hospitalization average was 151.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.99%.
One week ago (June 22), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,310.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 81.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.4, the 7 day hospitalization average was 163.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.06%.
Two weeks ago (June 15), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,474.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 170.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.13%.
One year ago (June 29, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 20,983.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,087.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 480.4, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.74%.
Two years ago (June 29, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 21,048.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 55.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.7, the 7 day hospitalization average was 98.2, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.33%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 9.68; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 726.1 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 9.71; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 728.3 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, June 24, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 123.7 copies per milliliter (4.5 more than one week prior - up 3.7%), 913.6% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 98.6% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 194.7 copies/mL two weeks ago, 584.3 copies/mL one year ago, and 18.4 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 102.9 copies per milliliter (42.8 less than one week prior - down 29.4%), 912.2% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 99.1% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 211.9 copies/mL two weeks ago, 611.9 copies/mL one year ago, and 21.2 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Newly confirmed deaths doubled compared to last week - but at ten, it's still a tiny number for a full week, even compared to the July 2021 calm before the delta and omicron storms. Confirmed cases and tests are also down (no surprise there), as are hospitalizations. Three of the four seven-day averages are down compared to last week; the seven-day deaths average ticked up slightly, from the all-time lowest observed value recorded last week. Massachusetts Water Resources Authority wastewater levels on the north side ticked up slightly and ticked down a bit more on the south side; both are still above one hundred, though, and thus far above the all-time lows.

Not horrible numbers overall, but not really supporting a local "COVID is over!" celebration, either.