edschweppe | Local COVID-19 updates

As of 5PM today (Thursday, June 15, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 8 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than last week - down 11.1%) for a total of 22,662 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (same as last week) for a total of 2,036 probable deaths. In total, 10 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (1 less than last week - down 9.1%) for a total of 24,698 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 809 newly reported confirmed cases (22 more than last week - up 2.8%) for a total of 2,042,644 confirmed cases. There were 267 newly reported probable cases (94 less than last week - down 26.0%) for a total of 204,841 probable cases. In total, 1,076 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (72 less than last week - down 6.3%) for a total of 2,247,485 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 20,459 new molecular tests (358 less than last week - down 1.7%) for a total of 50,190,939. The seven-day average positivity rate is 4.13%, compared to 4.15% last week. There are currently 160 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (13 less than last week - down 7.5%), 16 COVID patients are in ICUs (7 less than last week - down 30.4%), and 8 COVID patients are intubated (4 more than last week - up 100.0%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 90.7 (2.6 less than last week - down 2.8%), 41.4% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,246.7 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 4.13% (0.01 less than last week - down 0.3%), 1,243.3% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 85.1% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 170.3 (same as last week), 102.0% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.6% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 0.9 (0.1 more than last week - up 20.0%), 50.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.6 on 6/10/2023 and 99.5% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,474.0 (93.1 less than last week - down 3.6%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 2,474.0 on 6/13/2023 and 97.8% below the highest observed value of 110,431.6 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,499 non-ICU beds, of which 7,624 (89.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 731 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,165 ICU beds, of which 935 (80.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 16 (1.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 214 (18.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,715 non-ICU beds, of which 8,003 (91.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 150 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 562 (6.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,203 ICU beds, of which 953 (79.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 23 (1.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 227 (18.9%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (June 15), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,474.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 170.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.13%.
One week ago (June 8), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,567.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 93.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.7, the 7 day hospitalization average was 170.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.15%.
Two weeks ago (June 1), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,619.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 87.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 159.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.82%.
One year ago (June 15, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 22,580.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,143.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 525.1, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.71%.
Two years ago (June 15, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 22,732.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 74.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 149.8, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.42%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 9.13; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 827.9 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 9.19; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 833.5 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, June 10, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 194.7 copies per milliliter (25.3 more than one week prior - up 14.9%), 1,495.3% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 97.8% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 225.8 copies/mL two weeks ago, 529.9 copies/mL one year ago, and 24.6 copies/mL two years ago.
As of Thursday, June 8, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 211.9 copies per milliliter (34.9 more than one week prior - up 19.7%), 1,983.9% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.2% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 208.7 copies/mL two weeks ago, 722.7 copies/mL one year ago, and 24.9 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Headline numbers are mixed; one fewer confirmed death, 22 more confirmed cases, and 13 fewer COVID patients in hospital, along with a slight decrease in percent-positive ratio. Tests, of course, dropped yet again; this week's average of 2,474 tests per day is the lowest since March 20, 2020 (2,466.86). The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority wastewater levels are, alas, up from last week; on the other hand, they've been hovering around a seven-day average of two hundred copies per milliliter or so since mid-April, so it's hard to read very much into one week's changes.

Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration is considering rolling out an omicron-variant-only COVID vaccine this fall:, according to the Associated Press:

The COVID-19 vaccines are on track for a big recipe change this fall.

Today's vaccines still contain the original coronavirus strain, the one that started the pandemic — even though that was long ago supplanted by mutated versions as the virus rapidly evolves.

Thursday, the Food and Drug Administration's scientific advisers reviewed whether the next round of shots in the U.S. should only include protection against the newest variants that are now dominant worldwide — a branch of the omicron family tree named XBB.

While infections have declined, the virus could be a real concern next winter, FDA's vaccine chief Dr. Peter Marks said as the daylong meeting began.

"We're concerned that we may have another wave of COVID-19 during a time when the virus has further evolved, immunity of the population has waned further, and we move indoors for wintertime," he said.

[ ... ]

The FDA has identified three XBB subtypes as the top strain choices. Vaccine makers already have been developing XBB-targeted formulas, and FDA's outside advisers on Thursday will review new data on how well those choices rev up the immune system.