edschweppe | Local COVID-19 updates

As of 5PM today (Thursday, May 4, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 14 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than last week - up 27.3%) for a total of 22,602 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than last week - up 100.0%) for a total of 2,027 probable deaths. In total, 16 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (4 more than last week - up 33.3%) for a total of 24,629 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 897 newly reported confirmed cases (137 less than last week - down 13.2%) for a total of 2,037,701 confirmed cases. There were 307 newly reported probable cases (74 less than last week - down 19.4%) for a total of 203,254 probable cases. In total, 1,204 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (211 less than last week - down 14.9%) for a total of 2,240,955 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 38,416 new molecular tests (6,808 less than last week - down 15.1%) for a total of 50,037,579. The seven-day average positivity rate is 2.46%, compared to 2.47% last week. There are currently 172 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (32 less than last week - down 15.7%), 15 COVID patients are in ICUs (2 less than last week - down 11.8%), and 4 COVID patients are intubated (2 less than last week - down 33.3%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 100.1 (7.6 less than last week - down 7.0%), 56.1% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,244.3 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.46% (0.01 less than last week - down 0.5%), 698.1% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 91.1% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 169.6 (50.1 less than last week - down 22.8%), 101.2% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.6% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.3 (0.3 more than last week - up 28.6%), 28.6% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 99.3% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 4,746.1 (281.4 less than last week - down 5.6%), 2.6% above the lowest observed value of 4,627.4 on 4/1/2020 and 95.7% below the highest observed value of 110,428.4 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,620 non-ICU beds, of which 7,856 (91.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 157 (1.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 607 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,214 ICU beds, of which 968 (79.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 15 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 231 (19.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,616 non-ICU beds, of which 7,804 (90.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 187 (2.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 625 (7.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,216 ICU beds, of which 983 (80.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 17 (1.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 216 (17.8%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (May 4), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,746.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 100.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 169.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.46%.
One week ago (April 27), the 7 day molecular test average was 5,027.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 107.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 219.7, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.47%.
Two weeks ago (April 20), the 7 day molecular test average was 5,086.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 136.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 270.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.22%.
One year ago (May 4, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 38,274.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,058.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 478.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.79%.
Two years ago (May 4, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 54,372.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 730.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 559.4, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.60%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 8.06; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 807.6 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 11.46; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,147.2 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, April 29, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 216.3 copies per milliliter (48.5 more than one week prior - up 28.9%), 1,672.4% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 97.5% above the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 209.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 550.3 copies/mL one year ago, and 143.8 copies/mL two years ago.
As of Friday, April 28, 2023, the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 213.9 copies per milliliter (66.2 more than one week prior - up 44.8%), 2,003.5% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.2% above the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 254.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 595.1 copies/mL one year ago, and 233.6 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

As of May 4, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 1109 new deaths and 77294 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
For Massachusetts, the CDC reported 16 new deaths and 1204 new cases.
The underlying query is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 27, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 1049 new deaths and 90318 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
For Massachusetts, the CDC reported 13 new deaths and 1415 new cases.
The underlying query is available here.

As of May 4, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3123 counties nationwide, 557 counties (17.84% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 354 counties (11.34% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1437 counties (46.01% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 775 counties (24.82% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 10 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Barnstable, Berkshire, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 4 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Low (Bristol, Dukes, Hampshire, Nantucket).
Barnstable County has 19.72 cases per 100k, 2.81 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Berkshire County has 20.01 cases per 100k, 1.93 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Bristol County has 7.78 cases per 100k, 2.28 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Dukes County has 0.0 cases per 100k, 3.1 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Essex County has 18.25 cases per 100k, 3.2 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Franklin County has 12.82 cases per 100k, 1.89 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampden County has 12.65 cases per 100k, 2.31 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampshire County has 8.7 cases per 100k, 1.97 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Middlesex County has 16.63 cases per 100k, 3.24 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Nantucket County has 8.77 cases per 100k, 1.15 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Norfolk County has 10.33 cases per 100k, 2.38 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Plymouth County has 10.94 cases per 100k, 2.54 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Suffolk County has 10.7 cases per 100k, 1.72 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Worcester County has 11.92 cases per 100k, 3.14 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
The underlying query for this data is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 27, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3123 counties nationwide, 573 counties (18.35% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 410 counties (13.13% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1516 counties (48.54% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 624 counties (19.98% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 13 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Barnstable, Berkshire, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Low (Bristol).
Barnstable County has 23.01 cases per 100k, 3.09 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Berkshire County has 35.22 cases per 100k, 3.22 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Bristol County has 9.73 cases per 100k, 2.28 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Dukes County has 23.08 cases per 100k, 2.88 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Essex County has 15.72 cases per 100k, 2.34 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Franklin County has 12.82 cases per 100k, 2.3 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampden County has 19.3 cases per 100k, 2.29 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampshire County has 18.65 cases per 100k, 2.4 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Middlesex County has 16.57 cases per 100k, 2.8 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Nantucket County has 35.09 cases per 100k, 5.0 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Norfolk County has 15.42 cases per 100k, 2.67 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Plymouth County has 12.09 cases per 100k, 2.24 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Suffolk County has 14.18 cases per 100k, 2.06 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Worcester County has 10.96 cases per 100k, 2.52 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of May 4, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3221 counties nationwide: 15 counties (0.47%, representing 0.05% of the population) with High community level, 31 counties (0.96%, representing 0.24% of the population) with Medium community level, and 3175 counties (98.57%, representing 99.72% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Low.
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 19.72 cases per 100k (implying 42.00 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 20.01 cases per 100k (implying 25.00 cases in the county), 1.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 7.78 cases per 100k (implying 43.97 cases in the county), 1.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 0.0 cases per 100k (implying 0.00 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Essex County (population 789034) has 18.25 cases per 100k (implying 144.00 cases in the county), 2.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 12.82 cases per 100k (implying 9.00 cases in the county), 2.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 12.65 cases per 100k (implying 59.00 cases in the county), 1.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 8.7 cases per 100k (implying 13.99 cases in the county), 1.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 16.63 cases per 100k (implying 268.03 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 8.77 cases per 100k (implying 1.00 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 10.33 cases per 100k (implying 73.01 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 10.94 cases per 100k (implying 57.02 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 10.7 cases per 100k (implying 86.02 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 11.92 cases per 100k (implying 99.01 cases in the county), 2.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 0.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 921.04 cases statewide.
The underlying query for this data is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 27, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3221 counties nationwide: 12 counties (0.37%, representing 0.03% of the population) with High community level, 62 counties (1.92%, representing 0.45% of the population) with Medium community level, and 3147 counties (97.70%, representing 99.52% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Low.
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 23.01 cases per 100k (implying 49.01 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 35.22 cases per 100k (implying 44.01 cases in the county), 5.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 9.73 cases per 100k (implying 55.00 cases in the county), 2.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 23.08 cases per 100k (implying 4.00 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Essex County (population 789034) has 15.72 cases per 100k (implying 124.04 cases in the county), 3.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 12.82 cases per 100k (implying 9.00 cases in the county), 2.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 19.3 cases per 100k (implying 90.01 cases in the county), 1.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 18.65 cases per 100k (implying 29.99 cases in the county), 1.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 16.57 cases per 100k (implying 267.06 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 35.09 cases per 100k (implying 4.00 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 15.42 cases per 100k (implying 108.98 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 12.09 cases per 100k (implying 63.01 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 14.18 cases per 100k (implying 113.99 cases in the county), 4.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 10.96 cases per 100k (implying 91.04 cases in the county), 2.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 1,053.13 cases statewide.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

(The town of Acton has stopped updating its COVID-19 Information Center and Google Data Studio dashboard.)

Newly confirmed cases continue to drop - unsurprisingly, since newly reported tests are dropping as well. Today's reported seven-day average of 4,746.1 is the lowest that number has been since April 1, 2020. Hospital patient counts are also dropping, but the number of deaths (14 confirmed and 2 probable) is up from last week.

Also concerning: the levels of COVID in the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority wastewater are ticking upward over the last couple of weeks - and the sampling frequency has dropped from daily to three times a week. According to the MWRA's COVID Tracking page:

As of Monday April 10th, wastewater testing for SARS-COV-2 RNA will occur three times per week on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Samples are analyzed by Biobot Analytics, a wastewater epidemiology company. Sample results will generally be posted 2-3 working days after they are collected. Please refer to the Mass DPH website for information regarding current cases of COVID-19 in your community.

Yeah, reducing the reporting frequency for wastewater is exactly the thing I want to see as case counts become useless for predicting what's going on.

Not to mention that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have yet to update their national cases and deaths datasets for this week. No idea when - or even if - they'll be updated. Nor what they'll be providing once the Federal public health emergency expires next Thursday.

Meanwhile, the CDC now says COVID-19 is now only the fourth leading cause of death in the US:

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. deaths fell last year, and COVID-19 dropped to the nation's No. 4 cause, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Thursday.

COVID-19 deaths trailed those caused by heart disease, cancer and injuries such as drug overdoses, motor vehicle fatalities and shootings. In 2020 and 2021, only heart disease and cancer were ahead of the coronavirus.

U.S. deaths usually rise year-to-year, in part because the nation's population has been growing. The pandemic accelerated that trend, making 2021 the deadliest in U.S. history, with more than 3.4 million deaths. But 2022 saw the first drop in deaths since 2009.

The 2022 tally was about 3.3 million — a 5% decline from 2021 but still much higher than in the years before the pandemic. The CDC cautioned that last year's numbers are preliminary and may change a little after further analysis.

Coronavirus-associated death rates fell for nearly all Americans. The virus was deemed the underlying cause of about 187,000 U.S. deaths last year, accounting for about 6% of deaths. The highest COVID-19 death rates were in the South and in an adjacent region that stretches west to Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, the CDC said.

Yay.

(Edited 10:20pm to include the CDC results in the wall-o-text, as they finally posted this week's data.)