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Edmund Schweppe ([personal profile] edschweppe) wrote2023-04-13 05:51 pm
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Local COVID-19 updates

I'm rebuilding my wall-o-text builder, in large part because the testing numbers keep dropping and I wanted to include seven-day averages, trends, etc. for tests as well as cases, deaths, percent-positive and hospitalizations.

(I also am working on trying to get wastewater numbers, but that code isn't quite ready for prime time yet.)

As of 5PM today (Thursday, April 13, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 17 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 less than last week - down 50.0%) for a total of 22,562 confirmed deaths. There were 15 newly reported probable deaths (15 more than last week) for a total of 2,011 probable deaths. In total, 32 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (2 less than last week - down 5.9%) for a total of 24,573 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 1,569 newly reported confirmed cases (276 less than last week - down 15.0%) for a total of 2,034,528 confirmed cases. There were 283 newly reported probable cases (166 less than last week - down 37.0%) for a total of 202,275 probable cases. In total, 1,852 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (442 less than last week - down 19.3%) for a total of 2,236,803 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 48,473 new molecular tests (4,711 less than last week - down 8.9%) for a total of 49,912,425. The seven-day average positivity rate is 3.48%, compared to 3.70% last week. There are currently 287 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (23 less than last week - down 7.4%), 27 COVID patients are in ICUs (13 less than last week - down 32.5%), and 8 COVID patients are intubated (7 less than last week - down 46.7%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confimed cases is 165.1 (38.0 less than last week - down 18.7%), 157.5% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.3% below the highest observed value of 23,233.3 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.48% (0.22 less than last week - down 6.0%), 1,030.8% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 87.4% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 283.4 (25.4 less than last week - down 8.2%), 236.3% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 92.7% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.9 (1.7 less than last week - down 48.0%), 85.7% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 175.7 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 5,812.9 (598.4 less than last week - down 9.3%), 25.6% above the lowest observed value of 4,627.4 on 4/1/2020 and 94.7% below the highest observed value of 110,416.0 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,674 non-ICU beds, of which 7,811 (90.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 260 (3.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 603 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,200 ICU beds, of which 947 (78.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 27 (2.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 226 (18.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,679 non-ICU beds, of which 7,836 (90.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 270 (3.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 573 (6.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,235 ICU beds, of which 935 (75.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 40 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 260 (21.1%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (April 13), the 7 day molecular test average was 5,812.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 165.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 283.4, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.48%.
One week ago (April 6), the 7 day molecular test average was 6,411.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 203.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 308.9, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.70%.
Two weeks ago (March 30), the 7 day molecular test average was 6,801.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 217.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 330.7, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.63%.
One year ago (April 13, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 38,313.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,244.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 245.7, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.48%.
Two years ago (April 13, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 69,052.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,460.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 715.2, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.42%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 6.59; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,088.5 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 11.88; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,961.8 cases per day.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of April 13, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 1327 new deaths and 101437 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
For Massachusetts, the CDC reported 32 new deaths and 1852 new cases.
The underlying query is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 6, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 1779 new deaths and 122632 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
For Massachusetts, the CDC reported 34 new deaths and 2294 new cases.
The underlying query is available here.

As of April 13, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3123 counties nationwide, 768 counties (24.59% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 508 counties (16.27% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1421 counties (45.50% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 426 counties (13.64% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Berkshire), 12 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Low (Nantucket).
Barnstable County has 42.26 cases per 100k, 5.93 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Berkshire County has 55.22 cases per 100k, 4.27 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Bristol County has 15.57 cases per 100k, 3.68 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Dukes County has 23.08 cases per 100k, 3.92 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Essex County has 25.47 cases per 100k, 3.13 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Franklin County has 17.1 cases per 100k, 2.93 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampden County has 26.59 cases per 100k, 3.24 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampshire County has 23.63 cases per 100k, 3.07 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Middlesex County has 24.57 cases per 100k, 3.93 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Nantucket County has 0.0 cases per 100k, 0.88 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Norfolk County has 19.24 cases per 100k, 3.26 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Plymouth County has 18.8 cases per 100k, 3.58 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Suffolk County has 18.41 cases per 100k, 3.12 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Worcester County has 20.11 cases per 100k, 4.06 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
The underlying query for this data is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 6, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3222 counties nationwide, 888 counties (27.56% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 581 counties (18.03% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1268 counties (39.35% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 485 counties (15.05% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 2 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Barnstable, Dukes), and 12 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Berkshire, Bristol, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester).
Barnstable County has 54.46 cases per 100k, 5.78 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Berkshire County has 36.02 cases per 100k, 3.45 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Bristol County has 18.05 cases per 100k, 4.66 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Dukes County has 51.93 cases per 100k, 3.33 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Essex County has 28.14 cases per 100k, 3.28 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Franklin County has 31.35 cases per 100k, 4.02 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampden County has 37.52 cases per 100k, 3.73 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Hampshire County has 18.03 cases per 100k, 1.86 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Middlesex County has 28.36 cases per 100k, 4.06 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Nantucket County has 43.86 cases per 100k, 5.26 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Norfolk County has 27.87 cases per 100k, 4.29 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Plymouth County has 20.53 cases per 100k, 3.12 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Suffolk County has 21.4 cases per 100k, 3.01 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Worcester County has 23.48 cases per 100k, 3.72 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of April 13, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3213 counties nationwide: 17 counties (0.53%, representing 0.03% of the population) with High community level, 79 counties (2.46%, representing 0.89% of the population) with Medium community level, and 3117 counties (97.01%, representing 99.08% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Low.
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 42.26 cases per 100k (implying 90.01 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 55.22 cases per 100k (implying 68.99 cases in the county), 5.6 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 15.57 cases per 100k (implying 88.00 cases in the county), 3.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 23.08 cases per 100k (implying 4.00 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Essex County (population 789034) has 25.47 cases per 100k (implying 200.97 cases in the county), 3.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 17.1 cases per 100k (implying 12.00 cases in the county), 5.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 26.59 cases per 100k (implying 124.01 cases in the county), 1.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 23.63 cases per 100k (implying 38.00 cases in the county), 1.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 24.57 cases per 100k (implying 395.99 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 0.0 cases per 100k (implying 0.00 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 19.24 cases per 100k (implying 135.98 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 18.8 cases per 100k (implying 97.99 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 18.41 cases per 100k (implying 148.00 cases in the county), 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 20.11 cases per 100k (implying 167.04 cases in the county), 5.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 1,570.99 cases statewide.
The underlying query for this data is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of April 6, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3218 counties nationwide: 13 counties (0.40%, representing 0.02% of the population) with High community level, 113 counties (3.51%, representing 1.70% of the population) with Medium community level, and 3092 counties (96.08%, representing 98.28% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Low.
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 54.46 cases per 100k (implying 115.99 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 36.02 cases per 100k (implying 45.00 cases in the county), 0.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 18.05 cases per 100k (implying 102.02 cases in the county), 2.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 51.93 cases per 100k (implying 9.00 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Essex County (population 789034) has 28.14 cases per 100k (implying 222.03 cases in the county), 3.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 31.35 cases per 100k (implying 22.00 cases in the county), 5.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 37.52 cases per 100k (implying 174.98 cases in the county), 2.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 18.03 cases per 100k (implying 29.00 cases in the county), 2.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 28.36 cases per 100k (implying 457.08 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 43.86 cases per 100k (implying 5.00 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 27.87 cases per 100k (implying 196.98 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 20.53 cases per 100k (implying 107.00 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 21.4 cases per 100k (implying 172.04 cases in the county), 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 23.48 cases per 100k (implying 195.03 cases in the county), 5.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 1.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 1,853.16 cases statewide.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

(The town of Acton has stopped updating its COVID-19 Information Center and Google Data Studio dashboard.)

Confirmed deaths and cases are down again, along with the current hospitalization counts and the percent-positive rate. Unfortunately, the test counts continue to drop as well; the seven-day average number of tests per day (5,812.9) is at the lowest level since April 6, 2020 (5,782.1), and it's only getting worse every week.

Last year at this time, with roughly the same deaths and hospitalization numbers, we were running around thirty eight thousand tests per day; at that test rate and today's percent-positive ratio, we'd be reporting over a thousand cases per day today. I really don't trust those case numbers anymore.

One other not particularly good milestone: this week, the state surpassed two thousand probable deaths from COVID.

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