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Edmund Schweppe ([personal profile] edschweppe) wrote2021-07-21 06:17 pm
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Local COVID-19 updates

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 2 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 less than yesterday - down 66.7%) for a total of 17,667 deaths, 457 newly reported confirmed cases (91 more than yesterday - up 24.9%) for a total of 667,341 cases, and 36,110 newly reported molecular tests (11,276 more than yesterday - up 45.4%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.30%, compared to 1.18% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (3 less than yesterday) for a total of 368 and 68 newly reported probable cases (18 less than yesterday - down 20.9%) for a total of 46,673. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 2 new deaths for a total of 18,035 and 525 new cases for a total of 714,014. There were 107 COVID-19 patients in hospital (7 more than yesterday - up 7.0%), 34 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 more than yesterday - up 3.0%) and 14 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 less than yesterday - down 22.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 245.0 (27 more than yesterday - up 12.4%), 282% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/23/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.30% (0 more than yesterday - up 10.0%), 318% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 107.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 0.9%), 25% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 2.0 (same as yesterday), 100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,109 non-ICU beds, of which 8,109 (89.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 73 (0.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 927 (10.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,354 ICU beds, of which 944 (69.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 34 (2.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 376 (27.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,938 non-ICU beds, of which 7,707 (86.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 67 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,164 (13.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,321 ICU beds, of which 869 (65.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 33 (2.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 419 (31.7%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 59.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 2.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 90.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.46%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

The day-over-day changes continue to be mostly for the much worse. Deaths were down, which is always a good sign; however, deaths are very much a trailing indicator of the pandemic's status, and this most recent surge appears to have started in late June. Newly reported confirmed cases are up, as are hospitalizations; neither of these are good news. And, again, all four seven-day averages are now substantially above their Lowest Observed Values and are trending upward. The good folks at Covid Act Now currently have Massachusetts at a High risk level, based on their calculations that one infected person in the state is passing the virus along to an average of 1.33 other people.

I haven't heard any official word yet from the state about reinstating mask mandates or other non-pharmaceutical interventions. And I fully understand why nobody wants to go down that route. But Massachusetts has one of the best vaccination rates overall nationwide, and that's not stopping this latest surge. I'm masking up again in indoor public places, as irritating as it is. And I fully expect mandates sooner rather than later.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 6 active and 987 cumulative cases as of July 20. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.