Edmund Schweppe (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
edschweppe) wrote2021-07-08 05:30 pm
edschweppe) wrote2021-07-08 05:30 pm
Entry tags:
Local COVID-19 updates
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 3 newly reported confirmed deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 17,646 deaths, 99 newly reported confirmed cases (38 more than yesterday - up 62.3%) for a total of 664,406 cases, and 31,600 newly reported molecular tests (9,846 more than yesterday - up 45.3%). The seven day average positivity rate is 0.47%, compared to 0.46% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 0.61%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 365 and 11 newly reported probable cases (19 less than yesterday - down 63.3%) for a total of 46,223. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 3 new deaths for a total of 18,011 and 110 new cases for a total of 710,629. There were 89 COVID-19 patients in hospital (4 more than yesterday - up 4.7%), 28 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 more than yesterday - up 12.0%) and 9 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 10.0%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 61.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 61.0 on 7/7/2021 and 100.0% below the highest observed value of 6,236.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 0.47% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.3%), 52% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 88.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 2.2%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 88.0 on 7/7/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 2.0 (same as yesterday), 100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 6/28/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,054 non-ICU beds, of which 7,872 (86.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 61 (0.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,121 (12.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,338 ICU beds, of which 957 (71.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 28 (2.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 353 (26.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,963 non-ICU beds, of which 7,475 (83.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 60 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,428 (15.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,333 ICU beds, of which 870 (65.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 25 (1.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 438 (32.9%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 52.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 104.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.32% (or 0.42% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 951 total cases, with a two-week case count of no cases, a daily incidence rate of 0.0 which is the same than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of gray (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 50,748 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 991 and a two-week positive test count of 0, for a percent-positive rate of 0.00 which is the same than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 664,307 total cases, with a two-week case count of 1,001 cases, a daily incidence rate of 1.0 which is higher than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 23,969,707 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 351,544 and a two-week positive test count of 1,269, for a percent-positive rate of 0.36 which is the same than last week.
As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 336 would be coded gray (compared to 337 last week), 15 would be coded green (compared to 14 last week), and zero would be coded yellow (compared to zero last week).No cities or towns would be coded red this week.
Of the 10 towns near my church, 10 are coded gray (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day trends ... aren't good. Newly reported deaths held steady, but cases were up a bunch, as were hospitalizations. Seven-day averages for cases and hospitalizations are at their Lowest Observed Values, while that for deaths held steady; however, the average for percent-positive ticked upward again. Also not good: even though the seven-day average for cases is at the LOV, that LOV went up again. The combination of an upward creep in case counts with a similar upward trend in percent-positive is worrisome.
Don't get me wrong; the absolute numbers continue to look great, there isn't a city or town in the state with enough cases to merit even a yellow risk code (if the state was still reporting those), and a 14-day daily incidence average of 1.0 per 100k population is great news. But the seven-day averages for both cases and percent-positive are higher than they were two weeks ago, and that's not a promising trend.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing zero active and 981 cumulative cases as of July 7. There have been no new cases shown on this dashboard since June 2, over a month ago. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 61.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 61.0 on 7/7/2021 and 100.0% below the highest observed value of 6,236.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 0.47% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.3%), 52% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 88.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 2.2%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 88.0 on 7/7/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 2.0 (same as yesterday), 100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 6/28/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,054 non-ICU beds, of which 7,872 (86.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 61 (0.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,121 (12.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,338 ICU beds, of which 957 (71.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 28 (2.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 353 (26.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,963 non-ICU beds, of which 7,475 (83.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 60 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,428 (15.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,333 ICU beds, of which 870 (65.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 25 (1.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 438 (32.9%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 52.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 104.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.32% (or 0.42% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 951 total cases, with a two-week case count of no cases, a daily incidence rate of 0.0 which is the same than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of gray (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 50,748 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 991 and a two-week positive test count of 0, for a percent-positive rate of 0.00 which is the same than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 664,307 total cases, with a two-week case count of 1,001 cases, a daily incidence rate of 1.0 which is higher than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 23,969,707 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 351,544 and a two-week positive test count of 1,269, for a percent-positive rate of 0.36 which is the same than last week.
As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 336 would be coded gray (compared to 337 last week), 15 would be coded green (compared to 14 last week), and zero would be coded yellow (compared to zero last week).No cities or towns would be coded red this week.
Of the 10 towns near my church, 10 are coded gray (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day trends ... aren't good. Newly reported deaths held steady, but cases were up a bunch, as were hospitalizations. Seven-day averages for cases and hospitalizations are at their Lowest Observed Values, while that for deaths held steady; however, the average for percent-positive ticked upward again. Also not good: even though the seven-day average for cases is at the LOV, that LOV went up again. The combination of an upward creep in case counts with a similar upward trend in percent-positive is worrisome.
Don't get me wrong; the absolute numbers continue to look great, there isn't a city or town in the state with enough cases to merit even a yellow risk code (if the state was still reporting those), and a 14-day daily incidence average of 1.0 per 100k population is great news. But the seven-day averages for both cases and percent-positive are higher than they were two weeks ago, and that's not a promising trend.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing zero active and 981 cumulative cases as of July 7. There have been no new cases shown on this dashboard since June 2, over a month ago. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.