Edmund Schweppe (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
edschweppe) wrote2021-03-18 05:56 pm
edschweppe) wrote2021-03-18 05:56 pm
Entry tags:
Local COVID-19 updates
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 27 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 less than yesterday - down 38.6%) for a total of 16,426 deaths, 1,857 newly reported confirmed cases (217 more than yesterday - up 13.2%) for a total of 574,135 cases, and 106,850 newly reported molecular tests (8,885 more than yesterday - up 9.1%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.93%, compared to 1.92% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.41%, compared to 3.37% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 25,630 (233 more than yesterday - up 0.9%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 333 and 84 newly reported probable cases (13 more than yesterday - up 18.3%) for a total of 34,183. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 27 new deaths for a total of 16,759 and 1,941 new cases for a total of 608,318. There were 592 COVID-19 patients in hospital (28 less than yesterday - down 4.5%), 164 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (6 more than yesterday - up 3.8%) and 98 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 less than yesterday - down 3.9%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,130.0 (47 more than yesterday - up 4.3%), 619% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,240.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.93% (0 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 151% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 632.0 (12 less than yesterday - down 1.9%), 307% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 3.6%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,167 non-ICU beds, of which 7,291 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 428 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,448 (15.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,411 ICU beds, of which 887 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (11.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 360 (25.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,139 non-ICU beds, of which 7,270 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 462 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,407 (15.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,407 ICU beds, of which 885 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 364 (25.9%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,040.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 40.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 783.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.75% (or 2.99% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 802 total cases, with a two-week case count of 28 cases, a daily incidence rate of 8.4 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of green. Acton is also listed as having 37,634 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 2,117 and a two-week positive test count of 31, for a percent-positive rate of 1.46 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 572,278 total cases, with a two-week case count of 19,036 cases, a daily incidence rate of 19.5 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of yellow. Massachusetts is also listed as having 17,607,605 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,193,281 and a two-week positive test count of 21,789, for a percent-positive rate of 1.83 which is the same than last week.
Of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 124 are coded gray (compared to 121 last week), 32 are coded green (compared to 35 last week), and 175 are coded yellow (compared to 181 last week). The remaining 20 towns are coded red (compared to 14 last week): Barnstable, Chicopee, Dighton, Douglas, Fall River, Freetown, Hanson, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lowell, Methuen, Millis, Plymouth, Revere, Rutland, Southwick, Sterling, Sutton, West Bridgewater, and Yarmouth.
12 cities/towns are newly coded red this week (Barnstable, Dighton, Hanson, Lancaster, Lowell, Methuen, Millis, Plymouth, Rutland, Southwick, West Bridgewater, and Yarmouth) and 6 cities/towns are no longer coded red this week (Blackstone, Ludlow, Plainville, Springfield, Westminster, and Weymouth).
Of the 10 towns near my church, 3 are coded gray (Berlin, Boxborough, and Harvard), 4 are coded green (Acton, Bolton, Maynard, and Sudbury), 3 are coded yellow (Hudson, Marlborough, and Stow), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day deaths down, which is good, but cases and positivity both up, which is not. Total hospitalizations are down, but ICU cases are up slightly. Worse still, not only are the seven-day cases and positivity averages up from yesterday, they're up from two weeks ago.
And, even though Charlie Baker doesn't talk about it anymore, the count of cities and towns in the highest-risk category is up this week for the first time since January 21 (at the peak of the last surge). Granted, the total number is much lower today, but twelve new communities joining the list is definitely trending in the wrong damn direction. (In selfish personal news, my town of Acton has improved and is now in the green "low risk" category.)
But, hey, lots of vaccinations happening, right? And the numbers are all down from the January surge values. So, according to the governor, it's time to party hearty, and go to Phase 4 Step 1 of the reopening plan starting Monday:
Oh, and the travel order will be downgraded to an "advisory" on Monday, as well:
Woohoo! Party on! Pay no attention to those pesky public health experts who are worried that the case counts have leveled out:
At least I'm not the only one noticing this distinct lack of improving trends - but apart from a minor bit of personal egoboo, it's not good news at all.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 811 cumulative cases as of March 17. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10PM on March 10, 2021 reported 791 cumulative cases with 18 individuals in isolation, 741 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,130.0 (47 more than yesterday - up 4.3%), 619% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,240.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.93% (0 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 151% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 632.0 (12 less than yesterday - down 1.9%), 307% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 3.6%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,167 non-ICU beds, of which 7,291 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 428 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,448 (15.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,411 ICU beds, of which 887 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (11.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 360 (25.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,139 non-ICU beds, of which 7,270 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 462 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,407 (15.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,407 ICU beds, of which 885 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 364 (25.9%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,040.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 40.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 783.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.75% (or 2.99% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 802 total cases, with a two-week case count of 28 cases, a daily incidence rate of 8.4 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of green. Acton is also listed as having 37,634 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 2,117 and a two-week positive test count of 31, for a percent-positive rate of 1.46 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 572,278 total cases, with a two-week case count of 19,036 cases, a daily incidence rate of 19.5 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of yellow. Massachusetts is also listed as having 17,607,605 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,193,281 and a two-week positive test count of 21,789, for a percent-positive rate of 1.83 which is the same than last week.
Of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 124 are coded gray (compared to 121 last week), 32 are coded green (compared to 35 last week), and 175 are coded yellow (compared to 181 last week). The remaining 20 towns are coded red (compared to 14 last week): Barnstable, Chicopee, Dighton, Douglas, Fall River, Freetown, Hanson, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lowell, Methuen, Millis, Plymouth, Revere, Rutland, Southwick, Sterling, Sutton, West Bridgewater, and Yarmouth.
12 cities/towns are newly coded red this week (Barnstable, Dighton, Hanson, Lancaster, Lowell, Methuen, Millis, Plymouth, Rutland, Southwick, West Bridgewater, and Yarmouth) and 6 cities/towns are no longer coded red this week (Blackstone, Ludlow, Plainville, Springfield, Westminster, and Weymouth).
Of the 10 towns near my church, 3 are coded gray (Berlin, Boxborough, and Harvard), 4 are coded green (Acton, Bolton, Maynard, and Sudbury), 3 are coded yellow (Hudson, Marlborough, and Stow), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day deaths down, which is good, but cases and positivity both up, which is not. Total hospitalizations are down, but ICU cases are up slightly. Worse still, not only are the seven-day cases and positivity averages up from yesterday, they're up from two weeks ago.
And, even though Charlie Baker doesn't talk about it anymore, the count of cities and towns in the highest-risk category is up this week for the first time since January 21 (at the peak of the last surge). Granted, the total number is much lower today, but twelve new communities joining the list is definitely trending in the wrong damn direction. (In selfish personal news, my town of Acton has improved and is now in the green "low risk" category.)
But, hey, lots of vaccinations happening, right? And the numbers are all down from the January surge values. So, according to the governor, it's time to party hearty, and go to Phase 4 Step 1 of the reopening plan starting Monday:
Governor Charlie Baker said Thursday that Massachusetts would move forward with plans announced last month to move to the next reopening phase on Monday.
The state will move to Phase 4, Step 1 on Monday, the same day the state's travel order will be downgraded to an advisory.
Here's what will change on Monday:
* Indoor and outdoor stadiums, arenas, and ballparks will be allowed to open at 12 percent capacity after submitting a plan to the Department of Public Health
* Gathering limits for event venues and in public settings will increase to 100 people indoors and 150 people outdoors. Outdoor gatherings at private residences and in private backyards will remain at a cap of 25 people and indoor house gatherings will remain capped at 10 people
* Dance floors will be permitted at weddings and other events
* Exhibition and convention halls can operate following gathering limits and protocols
Additionally, overnight summer camps will be allowed to operate this summer, the state announced.
Oh, and the travel order will be downgraded to an "advisory" on Monday, as well:
Governor Charlie Baker's office said the state's travel order will be downgraded to a less onerous advisory on Monday, the same day Massachusetts moves to Phase 4, Step 1 of its economic reopening.
The announcement came in a statement Thursday.
Starting Monday, the release said, the advisory says that "all persons entering Massachusetts, including returning residents, are advised to quarantine for 10 days upon their arrival if they have been out of the state for 24 hours or more." That had been a requirement under the prior order, with certain exceptions.
The new advisory, the statement said, won't apply to people in several categories. They are: anyone returning to Massachusetts after an absence of less than 24 hours; travelers to the state with a negative COVID-19 test administered in the prior 72 hours; workers who enter Massachusetts to perform critical infrastructure functions; and visitors who are fully vaccinated against the deadly virus, according to the statement.
The Monday date for moving to Step 1 of the fourth phase has been confirmed previously by state officials.
"The Administration continues to take steps to reopen the Commonwealth's economy with public health metrics continuing to trend in a positive direction," the statement said. "This includes drops in average daily COVID cases and hospitalizations. Massachusetts also continues to be a national leader in vaccination rates."
Woohoo! Party on! Pay no attention to those pesky public health experts who are worried that the case counts have leveled out:
Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and a leading expert on infectious diseases, is warning that progress against the pandemic might be faltering as worrisome coronavirus variants take hold.
"Over past week, number of infections in U.S. has stopped declining," Jha, whose threads on the pandemic have taken on the status of required reading among public health observers, tweeted Wednesday night. "At about 50K infections every day. About where we were at height of summer surge. Why the stall?"
He cited the B.1.1.7. variant, which first emerged in Britain, as a possible factor.
"Suspect B.1.1.7 is now starting to really have an effect," Jha wrote. "And states are opening up. This is a problem."
Nicholas Reich, a professor at the University of Massachusetts whose lab creates a pandemic ensemble model in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, sounded a similar note. "For the first time in a while, I am actively concerned about the new trends, and perhaps more concerned that this isn't getting the attention that I think it deserves," he said.
It increasingly seems, he said in an e-mail, that plateauing cases "aren't just data aberrations but rather the variant actually taking hold and starting to do in some parts of the US what it's already done in much of Europe." He noted that, in some states, plateaus have turned into increases, pointing to Michigan and New Jersey as examples.
He tweeted Wednesday that the case and hospitalization trends in Michigan were "not good," saying his lab's forecast saw the uptick continuing for at least two weeks.
In Massachusetts, the seven-day average of cases reported peaked in the first half of January, then dropped precipitously until the last week in February. Since then, it has hit a plateau, ticking up and down, with a slight uptick in the past week or so. The levels remain higher than the lows reached last summer.
[ ... ]
Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden's lead medical adviser on the pandemic, warned Wednesday that the variants continue to threaten progress made in reducing cases and immunizing the population. "While we are cautiously optimistic about the future, we know that many challenges remain," Fauci said in prepared remarks ahead of a congressional hearing on Wednesday. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in her remarks, "An increase in viral transmission could reverse the progress we've made."
Jha said in his tweets that a month ago every US state had seen declining cases, but now, 15 have more cases than they did two weeks ago, and 19 states have posted higher positivity rates over the same period.
Even hospitalizations, Jha said, are creeping back up in spots.
"Not a surprise B.1.1.7 -- probably represents about 40% of infections in US today," Jha tweeted. "Means about 20,000 infections identified today were likely from B.1.1.7. It will become the dominant variant in next couple of weeks. So what's the problem?"
He suggested the public look across the pond to Europe for insights on what the variant could do here.
As the variant became dominant in European nations, Jha continued, they tended to "see large spikes in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths So are we in big trouble?"
Not necessarily, Jha tweeted.
He said the US has two options for avoiding a similar fate: continue to vaccinate people "and fast," and maintain pandemic-related restrictions for a few more weeks.
"We are doing the first, not the second," Jha tweeted. "Every high risk person should be able to get a vaccine by mid to late April. That's so close. Every infection that kills someone today is a person who would get vaccinated in the [next] few weeks. So we have to keep public health restrictions in place for a tiny bit longer."
That means, Jha said, maintaining indoor mask requirements, not yet returning to full restaurants and bars, and not cutting back on testing.
"And it definitely adds an urgency to vaccinate every high risk person -- older folks, those with chronic diseases, as quickly as possible," Jha tweeted.
At least I'm not the only one noticing this distinct lack of improving trends - but apart from a minor bit of personal egoboo, it's not good news at all.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 811 cumulative cases as of March 17. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10PM on March 10, 2021 reported 791 cumulative cases with 18 individuals in isolation, 741 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.