edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe ([personal profile] edschweppe) wrote2020-12-31 06:39 pm
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Local COVID-19 updates

The state won't be releasing a daily dashboard tomorrow, so neither shall I. Ghu only knows what sort of statistical mess the weekend numbers end up looking like; today's numbers are depressing enough.

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 81 newly reported confirmed deaths (37 less than yesterday - down 31.4%) for a total of 12,157 deaths, 6,887 newly reported confirmed cases (752 more than yesterday - up 12.3%) for a total of 359,445 cases, and 95,827 newly reported molecular tests (9,777 more than yesterday - up 11.4%). The seven day average positivity rate is 8.60%, compared to 8.44% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 9.35%, compared to 9.37% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 80,359 (1,549 more than yesterday - up 2.0%). The state also reported 4 newly reported probable deaths (2 more than yesterday - up 100.0%) for a total of 266 and 373 newly reported probable cases (331 less than yesterday - down 47.0%) for a total of 15,733. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 85 new deaths for a total of 12,423 and 7,260 new cases for a total of 375,178. There were 2,271 COVID-19 patients in hospital (14 more than yesterday - up 0.6%), 417 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (16 less than yesterday - down 3.7%) and 240 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (9 more than yesterday - up 3.9%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,000 (341 more than yesterday - up 12.8%), 1,810% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 38% below the highest observed value of 4,779 on December 7. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 8.6% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.9%), 1,015% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 69% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,192 (25 more than yesterday - up 1.2%), 1,314% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 44% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 60 (2 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 445% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 66% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,204, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 45, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,761, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.0% (or 7.90% excluding higher education).

Today being Thursday, the state also released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 509 cases, with a two week case count of 77 new cases in the last fourteen days (lower than last week), a daily incidence rate of 23.2 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 23,336 total tests, with 2,490 total tests and 96 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.86% over the last fourteen days, which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 352,558 cases, with a two week case count of 56,889 new cases in the last fourteen days (lower than last week), a daily incidence rate of 58.3 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of red. The state is also listed as having 10,848,872 total tests, with 1,021,284 total tests and 66,504 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 6.51% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.

Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 76 are coded gray, 10 are coded green, and 75 are coded yellow. The remaining 190 cities/towns are coded red: Abington, Acushnet, Agawam, Amesbury, Andover, Ashburnham, Athol, Attleboro, Auburn, Avon, Ayer, Barnstable, Bellingham, Berkley, Beverly, Billerica, Blackstone, Boston, Boxford, Boylston, Braintree, Bridgewater, Brockton, Brookfield, Burlington, Canton, Carver, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Cohasset, Danvers, Dartmouth, Dedham, Dennis, Dighton, Douglas, Dover, Dracut, Dudley, East Bridgewater, East Longmeadow, Easton, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Franklin, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Grafton, Granby, Groveland, Hadley, Halifax, Hamilton, Hanover, Hanson, Haverhill, Holbrook, Holden, Holliston, Holyoke, Hopedale, Hudson, Hull, Ipswich, Kingston, Lakeville, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lee, Leicester, Leominster, Littleton, Longmeadow, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Manchester, Mansfield, Marlborough, Marshfield, Mashpee, Mattapoisett, Melrose, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleborough, Middleton, Milford, Millbury, Millis, Milton, Monson, Montague, Nantucket, New Bedford, Newbury, Norfolk, North Andover, North Attleborough, North Brookfield, North Reading, Norton, Norwell, Norwood, Orange, Oxford, Palmer, Paxton, Peabody, Pembroke, Pepperell, Plainville, Plymouth, Quincy, Randolph, Raynham, Reading, Rehoboth, Revere, Rochester, Rockland, Rockport, Rowley, Rutland, Salem, Salisbury, Saugus, Scituate, Seekonk, Shirley, Shrewsbury, Somerset, South Hadley, Southampton, Southborough, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Sterling, Stoneham, Stoughton, Sturbridge, Sutton, Swampscott, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tewksbury, Topsfield, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Upton, Uxbridge, Wakefield, Walpole, Waltham, Ware, Wareham, Webster, Wenham, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, West Brookfield, West Springfield, Westfield, Westford, Westminster, Westport, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilbraham, Wilmington, Winchendon, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, Wrentham, and Yarmouth.

Using the old definitions (based purely on case counts), of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 55 would be coded gray (less than 5 total reported cases in the last 14 days), 0 would be coded green (less than 4.0 daily cases per 100k population), 0 would be coded yellow (4.0 to 8.0 daily cases per 100k population). while the remaining 296 cities/towns would be coded red (high-risk; more than 8.0 daily cases per 100k population).

Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 1 is coded gray (Berlin), 1 is coded green (Harvard), 6 are coded yellow (Acton, Bolton, Boxborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), and 2 are coded red (Hudson, and Marlborough). Under the original risk codes, of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, none are coded gray, none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and 10 are coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury).


Well, this stinks. Good to see day-by-day deaths down, but very bad to see an upsurge in cases and terrible to see positivity continue to climb. In fact, the 6,887 newly reported cases are the highest single-day count ever for the state; the only dashboard with a higher value was ... last Saturday, whose 7,424 cases covered both December 25 and 26.

The weekly numbers are mixed, with a drop in daily incidence rate but a higher positivity rate. Oh, and now we're up to 190 cities and towns in the high-risk category, up from 188 last week; Boston moved up into the high-risk category for the first time in a month.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 41 active and 536 cumulative cases as of December 31. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 9PM on December 15 reported 433 cumulative cases with 63 individuals in isolation, 345 persons recovered and 25 fatalities.

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