Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 14 newly reported confirmed deaths (for a total of 8,279), 214 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 107,897), and 13,104 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 1,092,392), with a total of 1,410,099 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 1.6%. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (for a total of 219), 124 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 7,088), and 857 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 89,569). Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 14 new deaths (for a total of 8,498) and 338 new cases (for a total of 114,985).

Deaths, (confirmed) cases and tests all down today; the percent-positive rate also ticked down slightly. Probable cases did spike upward, which brought the combined case count up slightly. In not-so-good news, the number of hospitals using surge capacity is now up to seven, and the three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths ticked up by one (to 11).

The state is still having problems with data quality:

Due to the recent change in federal hospital reporting requirements and definitions which went live July 22, ongoing data accuracy and integrity issues were experienced with today's report. The third graph (number of hospitals using surge) does not include data from July 22 due to this challenge, but has been updated with July 23 data. DPH and the reporting hospitals are making every effort to mitigate these reporting challenges.

Today's big local news is the announcement by Governor Baker of new quarantine rules for people coming from out of state. Unless you're coming from a "low-risk" state (currently just New England, New York, New Jersey and Hawaii) or you have a negative test in the last 72 hours, you need to quarantine yourself for 14 days upon arrival. From the Boston Globe:

Travelers entering Massachusetts from most other states must quarantine for 14 days or face a $500-a-day fine, under a tough new order that Governor Charlie Baker issued Friday in the hope of keeping at bay the coronavirus pandemic raging through much of the country.

The rules, which take effect Aug. 1, apply to vacationers, students returning to local colleges, and Massachusetts residents returning from out-of-state trips. But travelers from states deemed low-risk — currently most of the Northeast, plus Hawaii — and those who can document a negative COVID-19 test within the previous three days are exempt from the quarantine requirement.

The regulations represent a sharp escalation of efforts to maintain the low rates of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations that Massachusetts has achieved. Once one of the hardest-hit states during the pandemic, Massachusetts now reports that only 1.8 percent of coronavirus tests come back positive, according to the most recent seven-day average.

"Since March, the people of Massachusetts have made great sacrifice and shown great discipline," Baker said at a State House news conference, "and as a result, our state has made great progress to control COVID-19."

Now, he said, "Many people are traveling to and from Massachusetts for vacation or in some cases getting ready to come back to school. ... Every traveler coming to Massachusetts, no matter where they're from, has a responsibility to help keep COVID-19 out of the Commonwealth."

But enforcement will largely lean on the honor system, according to Baker, who said he expects that "the vast majority of people" will adhere to the new order.

Dr. Thomas Tsai, assistant professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, called Baker's executive order "absolutely the right approach." Although he did not know of studies showing the effectiveness of such travel restrictions, Tsai said, "It makes epidemiological sense. It makes intuitive sense."

[ ... ]

Since March, Baker had issued only travel "guidance," with no threats of a fine, urging people to quarantine if they traveled from other states.

But he and Stephanie Pollack, the state's transportation secretary, said state data showed travel picking up on the state's roads and at Logan International Airport. More than 50 flights arrive each day from Texas, California, and Florida, where the virus has flared to dangerous levels and forced officials to pull back on their reopening plans.

"Our goal is to prevent the spread of COVID-19 as out-of-state travel increases," said Pollack. "All such travelers have a responsibility to help the Commonwealth keep transmission levels as low as possible."

As of 11:30AM today, the town of Acton is reporting 181 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Acton with 4 individuals in isolation, 156 recovered and 21 fatalities; that's one more "individual in isolation" than the last report on July 16.