edschweppe | Local COVID-19 updates

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 27 newly reported confirmed COVID-19 deaths (for a total of 7,179 confirmed deaths), 261 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 99,562) and 7,808 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 648,616). The ratio of newly confirmed cases to molecular test results is 3.3%. The state reported zero probable deaths (for a total of 137), 43 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 3,874), and 5719 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 51,146). In total, the state reported 27 new deaths (for a total of 7,316) and 304 new cases (for a total of 103,436).

Daily deaths down, new cases down, percentage of test positive down, and a big chunk of businesses reopening tomorrow - all great news, right? Not completely. Both the "numbers of hospitals using surge capacity" and "three-day average of COVID-19 deaths" ticked upward. And I've noticed a pattern in Massachusetts' data of declines over the weekend followed by a jump on Tuesdays.

I also want to note today's Boston Globe editorial, Massachusetts, let's get more ambitious with coronavirus testing:

Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration deserves credit for ramping up coronavirus testing in Massachusetts after the federal government botched the rollout of COVID-19 tests, forcing states to manage the outbreak while flying nearly blind. In mid-March, only 2,000 people had been tested in this state, making it impossible to pinpoint where the virus had spread. Now, after months of coordination between state officials and local labs, research centers, and health care facilities, Massachusetts is testing an average of 10,000 people every day. More than 600,000 tests have been performed overall, which is sixth in the nation on a per-capita basis, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. (Rhode Island is No. 1 in that regard by a large margin.)

Judging by the current status of the outbreak, notably the declining numbers of deaths and hospital admissions related to COVID-19, the state’s overall strategy of testing, social distancing, and using masks is working — for now. But if Massachusetts is to sustain this trend even as more people travel and return to work or school, public-health officials would benefit from substantially more test data, because that would increase the chances of stopping infected people from spreading the virus. Without the insights that could come from many more tests, strategically deployed, the reopening that’s underway could be more restrained than necessary. It also could be a prelude to a second shutdown in the fall.

The Baker administration acknowledges that there are holes. Right now, labs in the state have the capacity to handle 30,000 tests a day. Baker intends to boost that number to 45,000 by the end of July and 75,000 by the end of the year. Along the way, the state also expects to increase the percentage of the available capacity that is actually put to use, according to Marylou Sudders, the state secretary of health and human services who heads the COVID-19 Response Command Center. For one thing, she says, more testing centers are opening throughout the state. And newer kinds of tests don't require an invasive swab far up your nose, making it less likely that people will try to avoid the experience.

Nonetheless, the administration’s testing targets still appear to be too low. Even 75,000 a day isn’t necessarily enough to support frequent testing of people in large housing centers, workplaces, and schools. "In order for Massachusetts to be testing the sick and their contacts, high-risk populations like nursing home residents and prisoners, and front-line workers in essential roles at adequate levels, we will need to develop capacity for around 125,000 tests per day in the medium term and 250,000 tests per day or more in the longer term," Steve Pagliuca, the Bain Capital co-chairman who led a reopening advisory task force of the Massachusetts High Technology Council, told the Globe editorial board.

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Sudders told the Globe's editorial board that with a capacity for 45,000 daily tests this summer and 75,000 by December, it'll be possible to routinely hunt for the virus in the highest-risk settings, including nursing homes, senior centers, assisted living facilities, universities, and other busy workplaces, while also having enough tests for anyone with suspicious symptoms and for people who’ve been in close contact with an infected person. That assumes, however, that many people — including nursing home residents and workers in jobs with a high degree of potential exposure — will be tested every two weeks. In the analysis by the Massachusetts High Technology Council, a daily capacity of 127,000 to 252,000 tests would allow many sets of workers to be tested weekly.

I'm with the Globe editorial board on this one. Not only do we need more testing to snuff out new clusters of infections before they grown, we're one of the few states in the country that could. If there was sufficient political will, that is.

As of 9AM this morning, the town of Acton is reporting 171 cumulative cases with 33 individuals in isolation, 117 persons recovered and 21 fatalities.